# Sources — State of the Market, Issue #001 (week of 19–23 Oct 2026)
All figures checked on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (AEDT). "As-of" is the date the figure refers to or was published. **CALC** = I worked it out from two sourced closes. **[UNVERIFIED]** = left out of the issue or softened.

## Aussie shares
| Figure | Value | As-of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 close / weekly change / ended 3-week streak | 8,795.2 / −0.13% (−11.52 pts) | Fri 23 Oct | https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202610233685/spasx-200-benchmark-index-falls-013-this-week-to-879520-data-talk |
| ASX 200 prior Friday close | 8,806.7 | Fri 16 Oct | https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/evening-wrap-asx-200-caps-1-weekly-gain-as-tech-miners-and-small-caps-bounce ; https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EAXJO/history/ |
| All Ords close | 8,905.8 | Fri 23 Oct | https://aapnews.aap.com.au/news/australian-shares-tumble-as-oil-hits-five-month-high |
| All Ords weekly change | −0.39% (CALC vs 8,940.4 on 16 Oct, Market Index) | 16–23 Oct | AAP above + Market Index 16 Oct wrap above |
| Materials down almost 8% since Monday; BHP down >8% to ~$55.05, near six-month low; financials rebounded | — | Fri 23 Oct | AAP (above) |
| CBA +4.3%, NAB +3.2%, WBC +3.1% (Friday); Temple & Webster +33.4%; Zip −29.5%, bad debts 1.97%, US fraud incident; materials −3.85%, gold sub-index −5.6% (Friday) | — | Fri 23 Oct | https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/evening-wrap-asx-200-steady-as-gold-and-base-metals-bloodbath-sparks-rush |
| NextDC: shares from over $9 to $5.69; revenue guidance cut to $475–500m from $615–640m; M3 West Footscray grid delay | — | Wed 21 Oct | https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/oct/21/australias-largest-datacentre-operator-nextdcs-shares-dive-as-melbourne-expansion-delayed |
| NextDC ~40% plunge | — | Wed 21 Oct | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/australia-data-center-operator-nexdc-datacenter.html |

## Rates, inflation, jobs, AUD
| Figure | Value | As-of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA cash rate 4.60%, four hikes in 2026 (latest Sept); next meeting Tue 3 Nov 2:30pm AEDT; hike odds ~56% | — | ~24 Oct | https://rbawatch.com/rba-meeting/november-2026 |
| Hauser "materially worse" | quote | Wed 21 Oct | https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-21/reserve-bank-hauser-warns-inflation-outlook-materially-worse/107288574 |
| Hike odds ~24% → 56% after Hauser; CBA Q3 forecasts trimmed mean +1.0% q/q, headline +1.3% q/q; Aug monthly CPI 4.0%, trimmed mean 3.6% | — | Thu 22 Oct | https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/10/inflation-cpi-rba-interest-rates-november.html |
| Unemployment 4.7% (up 0.1pt) | Sept 2026 | released 15 Oct | https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/unemployment-rate-47-september |
| Flash services PMI 47.8 (prev 51.9); manufacturing 49.7 | Oct flash | Fri 23 Oct | Market Index 23 Oct wrap (above) |
| AUD 70.12 US cents | — | Fri 23 Oct, ASX close | AAP (above); Market Index 0.7012 |
| AUD prior week 0.6945 → weekly ~+1% (CALC: +0.96%) | — | Fri 16 Oct 4:50pm AEDT | Market Index 16 Oct wrap (above) |
| RBA 2–3% target | standing policy | — | general knowledge (RBA inflation target) |

## Housing
| Figure | Value | As-of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| National HVI −1.1% Sept, 6th straight fall, 5.2% below March peak, 0.0% y/y; Brisbane −1.5%, Sydney −1.4%, Darwin only riser; rents +5.5% y/y | September 2026 | released 1 Oct | https://discover.cotality.com/hubfs/Article-Reports/COTALITY%20HVI%20OCT%202026%20FINAL.pdf |
| Preliminary clearance rate 51.2% on 1,423 auctions (down 45.8% y/y) | week ending 18 Oct | 20 Oct | https://orchardlending.com.au/2026/10/20/australian-property-market-update-week-ending-18-october-2026/ (citing Cotality) |

## Commodities
| Figure | Value | As-of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent settle US$116.72, +6.2% wk, highest since 29 Apr; Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, expected US strikes on Iran | — | Fri 23 Oct (US) | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/oil-price-brent-wti-iran-war-saudi-arabia.html |
| Spot gold ~US$3,998 (2:27pm EDT), ~−4% wk, worst week since June, first sub-$4,000 since mid-July; Fed hold 92% / Dec hike 78% | — | Fri 23 Oct (US) | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/gold-heads-for-steep-weekly-loss-as-oil-prices-fuel-fed-rate-concerns.html |
| Gold ~A$5,740 (at US$4,023, ASX close) | — | Fri 23 Oct | AAP (above) |
| Iron ore SGX ~US$90.75/t; 7th straight weekly loss (Dalian −0.45% wk) | — | Fri 23 Oct | https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/reuters/2026/10/23/minerio-de-ferro-sobe-apos-queda-nos-estoques-mas-fecha-semana-com-perda.htm ; https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/MMi-Daily-Iron-Ore-Report-for-23th-October-2026.pdf |
| Petrol U91 national average 240.6c/L | — | Fri 23 Oct | https://fuelradar.com.au/market-update/2026-10-23 |

## Around the world
| Figure | Value | As-of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 7,629.92; Nasdaq 25,986.95; Dow 52,241.55 | — | Fri 23 Oct (US close) | https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wall-st-set-open-lower-130848087.html |
| Prior closes S&P 7,659.44; Nasdaq 26,140.03; Dow 52,002.41 | — | Fri 16 Oct (US close) | https://www.theclosereport.com/archive/2026-10-16 |
| Weekly: S&P ≈ −0.5% (corrected 24 Oct: −0.47% from final close; was −0.39% from preliminary), Nasdaq −0.59%, Dow +0.46% (preliminary) | CALC | 16–23 Oct | from the two rows above |
| Nasdaq worst day since June (Thu); Meta capex | — | Thu 22 Oct (US) | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/stock-market-today-live-updates.html |
| Fed funds 3.75–4.00% after 16 Sep hike | — | 16 Sep | https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm |
| China Q3 GDP +4.5% y/y (prev 4.3%) | Q3 2026 | 19 Oct | https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202610/19/content_WS6ad5a59bc6d00ca5f9a0dc86.html |

## Crypto
| Figure | Value | As-of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 16 Oct close $81,500.80; ~$81,500 on 23 Oct; ~$84,800 high on 21 Oct; Thursday dip toward $81k | — | 16–23 Oct | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/ ; https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bitcoin-ends-the-week-stuck-at-81k-as-gold-breaks-below-4-000-oil-hits-114-and-markets-brace-for-a-volatile-weekend-202610231635 |
| ETH ~$2,400, −0.23% over 7 days | — | 23 Oct | https://www.fxpremiere.com/ethereum-eth-vs-btc-sol-xrp-overnight-ranges-october-23-2026/ |
| ETH $2,392.84, −38% y/y | — | 23 Oct | https://fortune.com/article/price-of-ethereum-10-23-2026/ |

## Week ahead
| Item | Source |
|---|---|
| Hunter on 60 Minutes (Sun 25, 8:30pm AEDT); Q3 CPI Wed 28 (Westpac headline 1.3% q/q); RBA Senate 11:15am AEDT Wed 28; import/export prices Thu 29; PPI and private credit Fri 30 | https://library.westpaciq.com.au/content/dam/public/westpaciq/secure/economics/documents/aus/2026/10/WestpacWeekly20261026.pdf |
| FOMC, ECB, BoJ, US PCE/GDP, China Fifth Plenum 26–29 Oct, Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon earnings | https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/week-in-focus-26-30th-october-2026-fomc-boc-rbnz-ecb-boj-policy-decisions-us-pce |
| Fed decision ≈ 5am Thu 29 Oct AEDT | CALC: 2pm EDT (UTC−4) = 5am AEDT (UTC+11) |
| RBA decision Tue 3 Nov 2:30pm AEDT | rbawatch (above) |

## Left out / unverified
- Petrol weekly change (a "down ~4c" figure turned up in search synthesis but couldn't be confirmed). [UNVERIFIED], omitted.
- ETH exact Fri-to-Fri % change. Only the 7-day −0.23% (FXPremiere) was used, described as "flat to slightly down".
- Weekly change for the BTC Friday-close is approximate because the Yahoo 23 Oct row was intraday when captured. Described as "≈ flat".
- CBA's fuel CPI forecasts (+9.8% Sep) are sourced but left out for readability.
- Clearance-rate "60–70% = strong" and "iron ore = biggest export" are general explanatory context, not weekly data.

## Trimmed edit (v2, 24 Oct 2026) — notes
The issue was cut to a ~5-minute beginner read. Every figure still in issue-001.md is listed above. Figures that were removed from the issue (All Ords, Nasdaq/Dow, NextDC guidance, Temple & Webster, Zip, NAB/WBC, PMI, auction counts, iron-ore Dalian %, A$ gold, CBA trimmed-mean forecast, and others) stay listed above for reference.
- "Unemployment highest in about five years" = ABS release ("five-year high"), 15 Oct.
- "Up from about 24% before the warning" = CommBank newsroom, 22 Oct.
- The "$100 → $104 at 4% inflation" in the Jargon buster is a worked example, not data.
- "51.2% is fairly weak" is editorial context, not data.

## Fresh re-check (Sat 24 Oct 2026, ~5:45–5:50am AEST Brisbane = 6:45–6:50am AEDT Sydney)
| Figure | Previous in issue | Re-checked value | Changed? | Source / as-of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent settle + week | US$116.72, +6.2% | US$116.72, +6.24% (third weekly gain in a row, highest settle since 29 Apr) | No | https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202610237901/front-month-ice-brent-crude-rose-624-this-week-to-settle-at-11672-data-talk (Dow Jones, 23 Oct 15:14 ET) ; https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-rise-on-fears-of-middle-east-conflict-escalation-2nd-update-b812a1a5 |
| Gold spot (US$) + week | ~US$3,998 (2:27pm EDT), ~−4% | US$3,999.38 weekly close, −4.04% | Minor (now the final weekly close) | https://alqanaas.com/en/research/gold-weekly/2026-W43 (XAUUSD week 19–23 Oct); Comex futures US$3,991.10, −4.05%: https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202610237436/comex-gold-ends-the-week-405-lower-at-399110-data-talk |
| Gold (A$) | ~A$5,740 (AAP, at ASX close) | A$5,717.38 Friday close (XAU/AUD) | **Yes**: updated to A$5,717 | https://www.investing.com/currencies/xau-aud-historical-data (23 Oct close). Prior Friday 16 Oct A$5,995.99 → about −4.6% for the week in A$ (CALC, not used in issue) |
| Bitcoin | ~US$81,500, "flat" | US$81,200 as of 7:49pm UTC Fri 23 Oct (5:49am AEST / 6:49am AEDT Sat). vs 16 Oct close US$81,500.80 = **−0.37%** (CALC) | **Yes**: updated to ~$81,200, ▼ 0.4% | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/ (23 Oct UTC daily candle still open at check time, so no final close yet) |
| Ethereum | ~US$2,400, "flat" | US$2,393.76 as of 7:46pm UTC Fri 23 Oct. vs 16 Oct close US$2,419.77 = **−1.07%** (CALC) | **Yes**: updated to ~$2,394, ▼ 1.1% | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD/history/ (same caveat) |
| BTC midweek high ~US$84,800 | — | 84,840.05 high, 21 Oct | No | Yahoo BTC history (above) |